Re: Call for action vs. lost opportunity (Was: Re: Renumbering)

[Tony Li <tli at cisco.com>]

On Oct 12, 2007, at 8:13 AM, Keith Moore wrote:

> > > there's precious little time left to do that
> >
> > Umm, Keith, we're *already* 'out' (in some sense) of IPv4 space,  
> > and have
> > been for a decade or more.
> Given that addresses are still available for the time being, I'm not
> sure what sense you mean there.


The only thing that's about to change is that the cost of v4  
addresses will go up
slightly.  The black market in addresses is now inevitable.  As  
demand climbs,
more people with assigned addresses will switch to NAT and put their  
prefixes
on the market, providing the 'supply' side of the equation.  This  
situation will
persist, with the 'demand' side slowly driving prices up.

Only when v6 becomes sufficiently attractive will it begin to be  
possible to
deploy v6 only sites and reduce demand.  So, until both content  
providers and
'eyeballs' see some obvious and compelling advantage to deploying v6,  
we have
a game of chicken, which no one will win.

Tony

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